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Valet i USA • Efterspelet

Åtta mätningar: Biden i knapp ledning över Trump

Av Joel Malmén
Publicerad: 22 mars 2024
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Joe Biden har en knapp ledning över Donald Trump, visar åtta nationella opinionsmätningar som utförts på senare tid enligt Newsweek.

Överlag visar de dock på små ledningar – runt ett till två procent – vilket innebär att det är allt annat än säkert att Biden hade vunnit en majoritet av elektorskollegiet om det vore val i dag.

Enligt systemet, vars syfte är att delstaterna ska ha jämlik representation i valet, är det möjligt att förlora valet även om man får flest röster på totalen – något som skedde när Trump vann över Hillary Clinton 2016.

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Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in eight polls
www.newsweek.com
Realclearpolitics sammanvägning av opinionsläget
www.realclearpolling.com
Fivethirtyeights sammanvägning
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
bakgrund
 
Elektorskollegiet i USA
Wikipedia (en)
In the United States, the Electoral College is the group of presidential electors that is formed every four years for the sole purpose of voting for the president and vice president. The process is described in Article II of the U.S. Constitution. Each state appoints electors under the methods described by its legislature, equal in number to its congressional delegation (representatives and senators) totaling 535 electors. A 1961 amendment granted the federal District of Columbia three electors. Of the current 538 electors, a simple majority of 270 or more electoral votes is required to elect the president and vice president. If no candidate achieves a majority there, a contingent election is held by the House of Representatives to elect the president and by the Senate to elect the vice president. Federal office holders, including senators and representatives, cannot be electors. The states and the District of Columbia hold a statewide or district-wide popular vote on Election Day in November to choose electors based upon how they have pledged to vote for president and vice president, with some state laws prohibiting faithless electors. All states except Maine and Nebraska use a party block voting, or general ticket method, to choose their electors, meaning all their electors go to one winning ticket. Maine and Nebraska choose one elector per congressional district and 2 electors for the ticket with the highest statewide vote. The electors meet and vote in December, and the inauguration of the president and vice president take place in January. The merits of the electoral college system is a matter of ongoing debate in the United States since its inception at the Constitutional Convention in 1787, becoming more controversial by the latter years of the 19th century, up through to the present day. More resolutions have been submitted to amend the Electoral College mechanism than any other part of the constitution, with 1969–70 as the closest attempt to reform the Electoral College.Supporters argue that it requires presidential candidates to have broad appeal across the country to win, while critics argue that it is not representative of the popular will of the nation. Winner-take-all systems, especially with representation not proportional to population, do not align with the principle of "one person, one vote". Critics object to the inequity that, due to the distribution of electors, individual citizens in states with smaller populations have more voting power than those in larger states. This is because the number of electors each state appoints is equal to the size of its congressional delegation, each state is entitled to at least 3 regardless of its population, and the apportionment of the statutorily fixed number of the rest is only roughly proportional. This allocation has contributed to runners-up of the nationwide popular vote being elected president in 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016. In addition, faithless electors may not vote in accord with their pledge. Further objection is that candidates focus their campaigns on swing states. By the end of the 20th century, Electoral colleges have been abandoned by all other democracies around the world in favor of direct elections for an executive president.:215
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Valet i USAEfterspeletAmerikansk politikHillary ClintonDonald TrumpJoe BidenUSANordamerika

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