Genrebild. (Richard Drew / AP)

Veteranen varnar: Då kan ”bond vigilantes” vakna

Veteranstrategen Ed Yardeni, grundare av Yardeni Research och tidigare chefsekonom på flera Wall Street-banker, oroas ännu inte över de stigande obligationsräntorna.

– Jag tror att vi vid 5 procent kommer att se gott om köpare, precis som 2023, säger han till CNBC.

USA:s tioårsränta är nu 4,7 procent. Yardeni myntade begreppet ”bond vigilantes” – investerare som säljer statsobligationer när de oroas över hög skuldsättning, vilket driver upp räntorna och pressar politiker.

Han ser 4–5 procent som ett normalt intervall, men när räntan närmar sig taket följer han ”bond vigilantes” allt närmare för tecken på ytterligare ränteuppgång.

bakgrund
 
Ed Yardeni
Wikipedia (en)
Edward Yardeni (born March 15, 1950) is an Israeli-born American economist and the president of Yardeni Research, which offers economic research and recommendations to clients. He is also the former chief economist for EF Hutton, Prudential Securities, and C. J. Lawrence. Yardeni is known for coining the "Fed model", a disputed theory of equity valuation, as well as the term "bond vigilante". He generally predicts a positive market trend for the stock market, although his predictions in 1999 of disruptions due to the Year 2000 problem were incorrect.
bakgrund
 
Bond vigilante
Wikipedia (en)
A bond vigilante is a bond market investor who protests against monetary or fiscal policies considered inflationary by selling bonds, thus increasing yields. The term was coined by Ed Yardeni in the 1980s. In the bond market, prices move inversely to yields. When investors perceive that inflation risk or credit risk is rising they demand higher yields to compensate for the added risk. As a result, bond prices fall and yields rise, which increases the net cost of borrowing. The term refers to the (alleged) ability of the bond market to serve as a restraint on the government's ability to over-spend and over-borrow. It has been argued that bond vigilantism is more of an uncoordinated reaction to an economic policy rather than an intentional strategy followed by protesting bond holders.
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