Demokraterna backar igen: ”Vi peakade för tidigt”
Demokraternas medvind i opinionen inför mellanårsvalet tycks ha vänt, med tre veckor kvar till valdagen. Det skriver Politico, som refererar till nya opinionsmätningar från CBS News/Yougov och New York Times/Siena College.
Demokraterna gick framåt i opinionen under sommaren men ligger nu två procentenheter efter Republikanerna i Yougovs mätning, och fyra procentenheter under i Siena Colleges. Båda mätningarna gäller hela landet och slår samman valen till representanthuset och senaten.
Framför allt ökar stödet för Republikanerna hos kvinnor i den politiska mitten.
– Jag önskar att valet hade varit i augusti. Jag tror att vi peakade lite tidigt, säger Matt Bennett på tankesmedjan Third Way till Politico.
Svep ner för fler perspektiv på nyheten från Improve The News.
Fler perspektiv på opinionsläget
Genom ett experiment i samarbete med Improve The News erbjuder Omni ytterligare fakta och perspektiv på ett urval av nyheter om amerikansk politik och mellanårsvalet 2022.
Democratic narrative
Voters are being duped by Republican claims. For example: Democrats are not soft on crime; bail reform hasn't lowered arrest rates; inflation came from COVID, not Biden; and the IRS isn't targeting the middle class - Biden is targeting the wealthy tax cheaters. The "hot button issues" are ones that Democrats have real solutions for.
Republican narrative
The economic issues referenced in these polls - all of which resulted from high energy prices - began right when Biden took office. The Democrats controlled the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives over the past two years, and none of their policies have improved the lives of American families. This sentiment for change will be reflected in November.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance that Republicans will win both the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Source: Metaculus.
Facts
- According to a new New York Times/Sienna College poll released Monday, 49% of likely voters said they'd vote for a Republican for Congress compared to 45% who said they'd vote for a Democrat.
- The results are a shift from the same poll last month, which had Democrats in the lead by one percentage point. The GOP has since gained ground in key Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin, as well as districts in Oregon and Rhode Island.
- The economy and inflation are the primary reasons for this polling shift, with 44% of voters focused on the economy in October compared to 36% in July. This is a boon for Republicans, whom voters focused on the economy say they would vote for by a 2:1 ratio.
- In a shift among crucial independent voters, the polling shows Republicans now lead by 10 points, compared to a 3-point Democratic lead in September. Among female independents, Republicans now lead by 18 points, compared to a 14-point lead for Democrats last month.
- Biden also faces a declining approval rating, with the latest FiveThirtyEight poll putting his approval at 43% compared to 50% in July and August. 64% of people polled also say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
- The polling data suggests that issues that Republicans have been stronger on are what voters are shifting their focus toward - including gas prices, stock market turbulence, crime, and immigration. Democrats, in contrast, have focused on guns, democracy, and abortion.
Sources: New York Post, New York Times, week
Om Improve The News
Improve The News är en kostnadsfri nyhetsaggregator, utvecklad av forskare på bland annat MIT med syftet att öka tillgången till pålitliga nyheter. Målet är att hjälpa läsaren att lyfta blicken över den polariserade debatten och förstå världen på ett nyanserat sätt, och på så sätt bidra till ett samhälle präglat av medmänsklighet, konstruktiv dialog och välinformerat beslutsfattande.
