Satellitbilder visar hur Kina har rustat upp vid gränsen. Bild från 17 maj i år. (TT NYHETSBYRÅN)

Analyser: Ett krig mellan Kina och Indien inte troligt

De ökade spänningarna mellan Kina och Indien längs den 350 mil långa gränsen vid Himalaya kommer troligen inte att leda till ett fullskaligt krig. Det skriver Archana Chaudhary i en analys i Bloomberg.

Konflikten går tillbaka till 1950-talet, då Indien beviljade Dalai Lama asyl efter upproret i Tibet. Sedan dess har den blossat upp med jämna mellanrum – som värst i kriget mellan länderna 1962.

”Ingen sida vill att det här eskalerar”, skriver Chaudhary.

Särskilt gäller detta Indiens premiärminister Narendra Modi som brottas med ett allt värre virusutbrott och en ekonomi på nedgång i hemlandet, skriver BBC:s Indienkorrespondent Soutik Biswas. En konflikt med Kina skulle innebära ytterligare ett problem för Modi, skriver Biswas, och får medåll av tidningen Indian Express.

”New Delhi måste jämna ut det militära och ekonomiska underläget med Peking, för sin egen säkerhet och för att uppnå långsiktig regional stabilitet”, skriver tidningen.

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Kriget mellan Kina och Indien 1962
Wikipedia (en)
The Sino-Indian War, also known as the Indo-China War and Sino-Indian Border Conflict, was a war between China and India that occurred in 1962. A disputed Himalayan border was the main cause of the war, but other issues also played a role. There had been a series of violent border skirmishes between the two countries after the 1959 Tibetan uprising, when India granted asylum to the Dalai Lama. India initiated a defensive Forward Policy from 1960 to hinder Chinese military patrols and logistics, in which it placed outposts along the border, including several north of the McMahon Line, the eastern portion of the Line of Actual Control proclaimed by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in 1959.Chinese military action grew increasingly aggressive after India rejected proposed Chinese diplomatic settlements throughout 1960–1962, with China re-commencing previously-banned "forward patrols" in Ladakh from 30 April 1962. China finally abandoned all attempts of peaceful resolution on 20 October 1962, invading disputed territory along the 3,225 kilometre- (2,000-mile-) long Himalayan border in Ladakh and across the McMahon Line. Chinese troops advanced over Indian forces in both theatres, capturing Rezang La in Chushul in the western theatre, as well as Tawang in the eastern theatre. The war ended when China declared a ceasefire on 20 November 1962, and simultaneously announced its withdrawal to its claimed "Line of Actual Control". Much of the fighting took place in harsh mountain conditions, entailing large-scale combat at altitudes of over 4,000 metres (14,000 feet). The Sino-Indian War was also notable for the lack of deployment of naval and aerial assets by either China or India. As the Sino-Soviet split heated up, Moscow made a major effort to support India, especially with the sale of advanced MiG fighter-aircraft. The United States and Britain refused to sell advanced weaponry to India, causing it to turn to the Soviet Union.This was the first war between India and China. Following the end of the war, both sides kept forward armed positions and a number of small clashes broke out, but no large-scale fighting ensued.

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