Saudiarabiens energiminister Khalid al-Falih vid lördagens möte i Wien (arkivbild). (Ronald Zak / TT NYHETSBYRÅN)

Analys: Opec är dömt att återupprepa historien

Opec har två alternativ för att nå målet om en stabilare oljemarknad, skriver Bloombergs Julian Lee i en analys. Det första är att sätta ett fast pris för den olja som medlemmarna säljer. Det andra är det man nu kommit överens om att göra – minska produktionen i förhoppning om att priset stiger av sig själv. Kartellen har testat båda alternativen tidigare och misslyckats alla gånger, menar Lee.

Men grundproblemet är inte kontrollen, hävdar han. I stället gäller det att försöka förutspå hur mycket olja världen egentligen behöver från Mellanöstern, vilket blir extra svårt när de amerikanska skifferoljeproducenterna nu får utrymme för ännu mer flexibilitet. ”Om gruppen inte kan göra prognoser kommer inga kontroller i världen ge prisstabilitet”, avslutar han.

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Opec
Wikipedia (en)
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, /ˈoʊpɛk/ OH-pek, or OPEP in several other languages) is an intergovernmental organization of 13 nations, founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela), and headquartered since 1965 in Vienna. As of 2015, the 13 countries accounted for an estimated 42 percent of global oil production and 73 percent of the world's "proven" oil reserves, giving OPEC a major influence on global oil prices that were previously determined by American-dominated multinational oil companies. OPEC's stated mission is "to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its member countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets, in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers, and a fair return on capital for those investing in the petroleum industry." The organization is also a significant provider of information about the international oil market. As of December 2016, OPEC's members are Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia (the de facto leader), United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Two-thirds of OPEC's oil production and reserves are in its six Middle Eastern countries that surround the oil-rich Persian Gulf. The formation of OPEC marked a turning point toward national sovereignty over natural resources, and OPEC decisions have come to play a prominent role in the global oil market and international relations. The effect can be particularly strong when wars or civil disorders lead to extended interruptions in supply. In the 1970s, restrictions in oil production led to a dramatic rise in oil prices and OPEC's revenue and wealth, with long-lasting and far-reaching consequences for the global economy. In the 1980s, OPEC started setting production targets for its member nations; and generally when the production targets are reduced, oil prices increase, most recently following the organization's 2008 and 2016 decisions to trim oversupply. Economists often cite OPEC as a textbook example of a cartel that cooperates to reduce market competition, but whose consultations are protected by the doctrine of sovereign immunity under international law. In December 2014, "OPEC and the oil men" ranked as #3 on Lloyd's list of "the top 100 most influential people in the shipping industry". However, their influence on international trade is periodically challenged by the expansion of non-OPEC energy sources, and by the recurring temptation for individual OPEC countries to exceed production ceilings and pursue conflicting self-interests.
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