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Analyser: Tro inte på positiva nyheter om brexit

Med positiva siffror från den brittiska industrin och tjänstenäringen kan man tro att landets ekonomi mår bra, trots alla varningar för recession efter brexitomröstningen. Men det är en felaktig slutsats och britter bör ”inte vara för glada över de positiva rapporterna”, skriver ekonomen Tyler Cowen i en analys på Bloomberg. ”Sådana åsikter bygger på ett dåligt ekonomiresonemang och kostnaden för brexit förblir hög, även om det i stort sett inte är synligt för närvarande”.
Enligt Cowen kommer pundet fortsätta dala om Storbritannien lämnar EU, vilket skadar importen. Och även om exporten tillfälligt får en knuff är det inte alls säkert att den trenden håller i sig efter brexit.
Av en liknande åsikt är ekonomen Barry Eichengreen. ”De tidiga effekterna av brexit har kommit in, och i motsats till vad somliga har hävdat är de inte positiva”, skriver han i en analys på Project Syndicate.

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Tyler Cowen
Wikipedia (en)
Tyler Cowen (/ˈkaʊ.ən/; born January 21, 1962) is an American economist and writer, who is a professor at George Mason University, where he holds the Holbert C. Harris Chair of economics. He hosts a popular economics blog, Marginal Revolution, together with his co-author, Alex Tabarrok. Cowen and Tabarrok have also started the website Marginal Revolution University, a venture in online education. Cowen writes the "Economic Scene" column for the New York Times, and also writes for such publications as The New Republic, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Newsweek, and the Wilson Quarterly. He also serves as general director of George Mason's Mercatus Center, a university research center that focuses on the market economy. In February 2011, Cowen received a nomination as one of the most influential economists in the last decade in a survey by The Economist. He was ranked #72 among the "Top 100 Global Thinkers" in 2011 by Foreign Policy Magazine "for finding markets in everything."
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Barry Eichengreen
Wikipedia (en)
Barry Eichengreen (born 1952) is an American economist who holds the title of George C. Pardee and Helen N. Pardee Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, where he has taught since 1987. Eichengreen's mother is Lucille Eichengreen, a Holocaust survivor and author. He has done research and published widely on the history and current operation of the international monetary and financial system. He received his BA from UC Santa Cruz and his Ph.D. from Yale University in 1979. He was a senior policy advisor to the International Monetary Fund in 1997 and 1998, although he has since been critical of the IMF. His best known work is the book Golden Fetters: The Gold Standard and the Great Depression, 1919–1939, Oxford University Press, 1992. In his own book on the Great Depression, Ben Bernanke summarized Eichengreen's thesis as follows: ... [T]he proximate cause of the world depression was a structurally flawed and poorly managed international gold standard... For a variety of reasons, including among others a desire of the Federal Reserve to curb the US stock market boom, monetary policy in several major countries turned contractionary in the late 1920's—a contraction that was transmitted worldwide by the gold standard. What was initially a mild deflationary process began to snowball when the banking and currency crises of 1931 instigated an international "scramble for gold". Sterilization of gold inflows by surplus countries [the USA and France], substitution of gold for foreign exchange reserves, and runs on commercial banks all led to increases in the gold backing of money, and consequently to sharp unintended declines in national money supplies. Monetary contractions in turn were strongly associated with falling prices, output and employment. Effective international cooperation could in principle have permitted a worldwide monetary expansion despite gold standard constraints, but disputes over World War I reparations and war debts, and the insularity and inexperience of the Federal Reserve, among other factors, prevented this outcome. As a result, individual countries were able to escape the deflationary vortex only by unilaterally abandoning the gold standard and re-establishing domestic monetary stability, a process that dragged on in a halting and uncoordinated manner until France and the other Gold Bloc countries finally left gold in 1936. The main evidence Eichengreen adduces in support of this view is the fact that countries that abandoned the gold standard earlier saw their economies recover more quickly. His recent books include Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods, MIT Press, September 2006, The European Economy Since 1945: Co-ordinated Capitalism and Beyond, Princeton University Press 2007, and Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System, Oxford University Press, 2011 Web Site His most recent work is Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, The Great Recession, Oxford University Press, December 2014 He has been President of the Economic History Association (2010–2011).
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