(ATTA KENARE / AFP)

Expert: Iranavtalet kommer inte överleva Trump

Oavsett vilket besked Donald Trump lämnar om kärnavtalet med Iran i kväll kommer avtalet inte att överleva hans presidentperiod. Det bedömer Michael Cohen, analyschef inom energibranschen på Barclays, skriver CNBC enligt Finwire.

Om Trump väljer att skrota avtalet kan det utgöra startpunkten på en långtgående uppgång i oljepriset. I går nådde priset på den amerikanska WTI-oljan den högsta nivån sedan november 2014 men Trumps tweet om tisdagskvällens besked fick prisuppgångarna att bromsa in.

Strax efter klockan 15 på tisdagen kostar WTI-oljan 70,1 dollar fatet och Brent-oljan kostar 75,7 dollar per fat.

bakgrund
 
Iranavtalet
Wikipedia (en)
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA; Persian: برنامه جامع اقدام مشترک‎, translit. barnāme jāme‘ eqdām moshtarak, acronym: برجام BARJAM), known commonly as the Iran deal or Iran nuclear deal, is an international agreement on the nuclear program of Iran reached in Vienna on 14 July 2015 between Iran, the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany), and the European Union. Formal negotiations toward the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear program began with the adoption of the Joint Plan of Action, an interim agreement signed between Iran and the P5+1 countries in November 2013. For the next twenty months, Iran and the P5+1 countries engaged in negotiations, and in April 2015 agreed on an Iran nuclear deal framework for the final agreement. In July 2015, Iran and the P5+1 confirmed agreement on the plan along with the "Roadmap Agreement" made between Iran and the IAEA. Under the agreement, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium, cut its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%, and reduce by about two-thirds the number of its gas centrifuges for 13 years. For the next 15 years, Iran will only enrich uranium up to 3.67%. Iran also agreed not to build any new heavy-water facilities for the same period of time. Uranium-enrichment activities will be limited to a single facility using first-generation centrifuges for 10 years. Other facilities will be converted to avoid proliferation risks. To monitor and verify Iran's compliance with the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will have regular access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. The agreement provides that in return for verifiably abiding by its commitments, Iran will receive relief from U.S., European Union, and United Nations Security Council nuclear-related economic sanctions. On 13 October 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States would not make the certification provided for under U.S. domestic law, but stopped short of terminating the deal. On 30 April 2018, the United States and Israel stated that Iran did not disclose a past covert nuclear weapons program to the IAEA, which was required in the 2015 deal. French President Emmanuel Macron warned President Donald Trump not to withdraw from the Iran deal, and told German magazine Der Spiegel that doing so "would open the Pandora’s box. There could be war."
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