Prognos: Storbritannien är på väg mot recession

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) is Britain's longest established independent research institute and think-tank located in London, England. It was established in 1938 with funding from the Rockefeller Foundation, the Pilgrim Trust, the Leverhulme Trust and the Halley Stewart Trust. Institute staff are organised into three groups: macroeconomics and finance; employment; and productivity, innovation and skills. Research themes covered by the National Institute include health and well-being, policy evaluation, welfare, migration, Britain in the EU, inequality poverty and disadvantage, families early years and early intervention, education training and skills and employment policy and practice. Dr. Martin Weale, CBE, was the Institute Director from 1995-2011. From 2011 to late 2015, the position was held by Jonathan Portes, previously, Chief Economist at the Cabinet Office. The current Director is Jagjit Chadha, who took up the position in May 2016. Lord Burns was President from 2003-2010, followed by Sir Nicholas Monck from 2011-2013. The current President is Sir Charles Bean. The National Institute is independent of all party political interests, and receives no core funding from government or other sources. They are not affiliated to any single university, although staff regularly undertake projects in collaboration with leading academic institutions. Funding is received through commissioned research projects from a variety of sources: government departments and agencies, the research councils, particularly the Economic and Social Research Council, the European Commission, charitable foundations, and the private sector.

Recession är i nationalekonomiska sammanhang en mild lågkonjunktur. En svårare lågkonjunktur brukar benämnas depression. Ordet är synonymt med nedgång eller avmattning. I nationalekonomisk mening innebär recession att det blir en avmattning av ett lands ekonomiska utveckling. Tecken på att ett land är i recession kan exempelvis vara kraftigt minskad BNP-tillväxt, minskade investeringar och stigande arbetslöshetstal. En del affärs- och investeringsglosböcker anger en tumregel som innebär att en recession oftast indikeras av två efterföljande kvartal med negativ tillväxt av bruttonationalprodukten. Denna definition används ofta av nyhetsmedier, men flera officiella recessioner, till exempel i USA, har inte uppnått dessa krav.