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Arkivbild från en protest för Jair Bolsonaro. (Andre Penner / AP)

Analyser: Domen inte slutet för Bolsonarismen

Den historiska fängelsedomen mot Brasiliens tidigare president Jair Bolsonaro innebär knappast slutet för hans politiska rörelse, enligt flera analyser.

Bolsonarismo – den populistiska rörelsen på ytterhögern som Jair Bolsonaro kommit att symbolisera – kommer sannolikt att växa efter domen, skriver The Guardians Tom Phillips:

”Bolsonaro fick mer än 58 miljoner röster i valet 2022 och är, trots sin fällande dom, mycket populär i delar av samhället. [...] Men redan nu frågas vilken politiker som kommer att ärva hans röster i nästa års presidentval”, skriver han.

Enligt flera analytiker ligger Tarcísio de Freitas, guvernör i São Paulo, bäst till för att ta över ledartröjan för Bolsonaros Liberal party (PL).

Högern verkar försöka utnyttja ögonblicket efter Bolsonaros dom för att hitta en ny kandidat, förklarar Gonzalo Zegarra i en analys på CNN Español.

”Bilden av Bolsonaro i fängelse kan få omfattande politiska konsekvenser för hans sympatisörer och motståndare. Men det påverkar också Brasiliens institutioner”, skriver han.

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Läs mer om Bolsonarism
Wikipedia (en)
Bolsonarism (Portuguese: bolsonarismo) refers to an ideology or the political movement tied to Jair Bolsonaro. His views, policies, and supporters are variously described as fascist or far-right populism by scholars and newspaper outlets, despite Bolsonaro denying the fascist label. Bolsonarism broke out in Brazil with the rise in popularity of Jair Bolsonaro, especially during his campaign in the presidential election in Brazil in 2018, which elected him as president. The Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) crisis during the Dilma Rousseff government, precipitated and accelerated by the political-economic crisis of 2014, strengthened Bolsonarist ideology and the Brazilian new right, which are part of the context of the rise of New Right populism at an international level. In politics, figures from Bolsonarism, such as Eduardo Bolsonaro, have sought to attract punishments and international sanctions for Brazil in order to free Jair Bolsonaro from being legally judged according to Brazilian laws, which has triggered a US tariff on the country. Likewise, pro-Bolsonaro deputies, with the support of parties such as União Brasil, PP and Novo, tried to block, intimidate, destabilize and impede the functioning of the legal entities of the Legislature (Senate and Congress) as a form of blackmail for their objectives, such as making it difficult to vote on government projects that benefit workers (such as the exemption from Income Tax) and trying to free Jair Bolsonaro and those involved in the coup attempt and extremists from the January 8 attacks. Bolsonaro supporters have also repeatedly threatened to kill Brazilian authorities and politicians.
 
Brasiliens Liberal party
Wikipedia (en)
The Liberal Party (Portuguese: Partido Liberal, PL) is a far-right political party in Brazil. From its foundation in 2006 until 2019, it was called the Party of the Republic (Portuguese: Partido da República, PR). The party was founded in 2006 as a merger of the 1985 Liberal Party and the Party of the Reconstruction of the National Order (PRONA), as a big tent, centre-right party, and was considered part of the Centrão, a bloc of parties without consistent ideological orientation that support different sides of the political spectrum in order to gain political privileges. As such, it supported the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff— members of the center-left Workers' Party—and Michel Temer. In 2021, it became the base of the then-president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, for the 2022 Brazilian general election. This led to many of his supporters joining the party, which thereby became the largest bloc in the National Congress of Brazil, and the Liberal Party took a general shift to the far-right.
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